Monday, April 17, 2006
IRANIAN NUKES: THE TIMETABLE TIGHTENS
A little late behind on this but it must be noted that Iran has taken another step towards nukes by successfull enrichment. What this underlines is that the timetable for coming up with a solution to the conflict is tightening. It also unbderlines that a soft diplomatic way of stopping the process is not really on the cards. Iran has constantly kept negotiating and then breaking off in order to push its programme further along. By this method it has been able to prevent the formation of a wide ranging diplomatic coalition against it. After all, if negotiations seem to work now and then there is little reason to turn to the US and its credible threatening of force. If there is no proper crisis climax point politicians will not feel any real sense of urgency to deal with the problem either. Whatever else they may be, the Iranian regime is definitely no amateur tactician.
It also seems that an Israeli strike is not going to happen right now. The best moment for an attack would have been before a nuclear installation goes critical to prevent fall-out. There could of course be strikes against other targets and there may be planes racing down run-ways in the Negev even as I write this, but I don't really see it happening. It seems more likely that Israel has decided to place its fate in the hand of others. That should be right, but given past experience I hope that Israel doesn't come to regret that decision.
Either way, what this has all clarified is that a nuclear-ready Iran is getting ever closer and the timetable for a solution is becoming tighter. That goes for me too, because to be entirely honest I don't yet know what I would do about the situation. This is very different to Iraq where my choice for regime change was long and well established.
A little late behind on this but it must be noted that Iran has taken another step towards nukes by successfull enrichment. What this underlines is that the timetable for coming up with a solution to the conflict is tightening. It also unbderlines that a soft diplomatic way of stopping the process is not really on the cards. Iran has constantly kept negotiating and then breaking off in order to push its programme further along. By this method it has been able to prevent the formation of a wide ranging diplomatic coalition against it. After all, if negotiations seem to work now and then there is little reason to turn to the US and its credible threatening of force. If there is no proper crisis climax point politicians will not feel any real sense of urgency to deal with the problem either. Whatever else they may be, the Iranian regime is definitely no amateur tactician.
It also seems that an Israeli strike is not going to happen right now. The best moment for an attack would have been before a nuclear installation goes critical to prevent fall-out. There could of course be strikes against other targets and there may be planes racing down run-ways in the Negev even as I write this, but I don't really see it happening. It seems more likely that Israel has decided to place its fate in the hand of others. That should be right, but given past experience I hope that Israel doesn't come to regret that decision.
Either way, what this has all clarified is that a nuclear-ready Iran is getting ever closer and the timetable for a solution is becoming tighter. That goes for me too, because to be entirely honest I don't yet know what I would do about the situation. This is very different to Iraq where my choice for regime change was long and well established.
Labels: Iran, nuclear weapons
