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Sunday, September 18, 2005

Unfortunately it has happened, the possible coalition between the Christian-democrats and right-liberals doesn't have enough votes to be the clear winner. In fact Schröder is even claiming victory for himself. Too early right now to say anything else, but so far the right-liberals (FDP) have said they will not enter into coalition talks with the Red-Green government. We shall see. A grand colaition seems likely, but remains a bad option. If she can get enough backing in her party, Merkel might now have to resort to the "nuclear" option that was dismissed only days ago and go for another round of elections. That would be my personal choice. But let's wait and see the results are not final yet. The only positive thing so far has been the particularly strong showing with 10% of the FDP, my fave amongst the German parties. Also extra points to my own prescience, as I wrote back in May:

I am not entirely sure though, whether this will actually see the Red-Green coalition government removed from office in Berlin. The key opposition, the Christian Democratic parties (CDU/CSU) are not currently clear enough about their leadership yet. On the plus side that may mean that the right-liberal FDP may profit most from an electoral swing away from the ruling parties. Well I’m hoping, though they lost a little in this election.
Let’s see, but I fear that a defeat of Schroeder in September/October is not guaranteed.

Given that it may have been her party colleagues' lacklustre support that reduced Merkels' credibilty as a leader I do see a bumpy and ugly ride ahead.



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